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Between a sluggish economy, lack of standards and few movie offerings, the latest and greatest in television technology is likely to remain a niche product, according to Riddhi Patel, principal analyst for television systems at iSuppli Market Research.
3D televisions made their debut in January at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas. Panasonic, Sony and Samsung all rolled out their models. Sony and LG plan rollouts for the summer. Avatar's runaway success - the film had already hit the $1 billion mark at the box office by January - fueled speculation that 3-D movies could drive people to plunk down $2,000 for a new television.
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But so far the first quarter of 2010 has been anything but a blockbuster. According to iSuppli, only four percent of the TVs shipped to retailers in the first quarter of 2010 -- about 1.8 million out of 46.5 million -- were 3-D. Samsung is currently leading the field, having sold 90 percent of all 3-D TV sets. In a press release, the company said it expects to sell 600,000 of them in the first six months of this year.
Patel says part of the problem is that there just aren't that many 3D movies out there. Avatar is just one, and the latest Shrek movie isn't likely to generate anywhere near the same DVD sales. And nobody, Patel says, is going to spend a lot for the sake of a single film. "There's some out there... but not enough to justify the price," she says.
Another issue is standards. There aren't any. One company's 3D glasses won't work with another brand. The glasses are priced in the hundreds of dollars per pair - Panasonic's 3-D glasses re $149 - so it's a large investment for an accessory.
The other major reason for the low sales numbers is the cost. Most 3-D TV models cost in the $2,000-$3,500 range. Patel said most consumers aren't willing to go beyond $1,000 for a TV.
A Best Buy sales manager in New York City (who chose to remain anonymous) said sales on 3-D TVs have been slow so far. The manager said a lack of consumer knowledge on the product has stunted sales. People don't always know what they are getting - and are anxious about putting down that much for an unproven appliance for a very few games, channels or DVDs.
Patel also speculates that home theater 3-D TVs are simply inferior to the theater experience. "Most of us, when we think of 3D we think of Avatar and the experience we had while viewing Avatar in the theater. What we forget is that was a big screen. When you bring it in your home, your set will be 40-60 inches. That may not give you the same immersive experience you had when you watched the movie at the theater."
Although initial sales have disappointed, iSuppli's projections show that 3-D TV sales will grow quickly. By year-end 2011, the number of units sold will triple from 2010, to about 12 million. By 2015, it will reach 78.1 million, a growth rate of about 80.2 percent.
3D televisions made their debut in January at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas. Panasonic, Sony and Samsung all rolled out their models. Sony and LG plan rollouts for the summer. Avatar's runaway success - the film had already hit the $1 billion mark at the box office by January - fueled speculation that 3-D movies could drive people to plunk down $2,000 for a new television.
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But so far the first quarter of 2010 has been anything but a blockbuster. According to iSuppli, only four percent of the TVs shipped to retailers in the first quarter of 2010 -- about 1.8 million out of 46.5 million -- were 3-D. Samsung is currently leading the field, having sold 90 percent of all 3-D TV sets. In a press release, the company said it expects to sell 600,000 of them in the first six months of this year.
Patel says part of the problem is that there just aren't that many 3D movies out there. Avatar is just one, and the latest Shrek movie isn't likely to generate anywhere near the same DVD sales. And nobody, Patel says, is going to spend a lot for the sake of a single film. "There's some out there... but not enough to justify the price," she says.
Another issue is standards. There aren't any. One company's 3D glasses won't work with another brand. The glasses are priced in the hundreds of dollars per pair - Panasonic's 3-D glasses re $149 - so it's a large investment for an accessory.
The other major reason for the low sales numbers is the cost. Most 3-D TV models cost in the $2,000-$3,500 range. Patel said most consumers aren't willing to go beyond $1,000 for a TV.
A Best Buy sales manager in New York City (who chose to remain anonymous) said sales on 3-D TVs have been slow so far. The manager said a lack of consumer knowledge on the product has stunted sales. People don't always know what they are getting - and are anxious about putting down that much for an unproven appliance for a very few games, channels or DVDs.
Patel also speculates that home theater 3-D TVs are simply inferior to the theater experience. "Most of us, when we think of 3D we think of Avatar and the experience we had while viewing Avatar in the theater. What we forget is that was a big screen. When you bring it in your home, your set will be 40-60 inches. That may not give you the same immersive experience you had when you watched the movie at the theater."
Although initial sales have disappointed, iSuppli's projections show that 3-D TV sales will grow quickly. By year-end 2011, the number of units sold will triple from 2010, to about 12 million. By 2015, it will reach 78.1 million, a growth rate of about 80.2 percent.
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